Global diamond output declines: The billion-dollar industry enters a restructuring cycle

The global diamond industry is undergoing an unprecedented shift in over 50 years. If the period 1980-2015 was considered a phase of strong expansion in mining and commercialization, then since the Covid-19 pandemic, the market has begun to enter a completely different cycle: declining output, fragmented supply, and value concentrating more on high-quality diamonds.

According to data from the Kimberley Process and Statista, global rough diamond production currently hovers around 110-120 million carats per year, significantly lower than the previous peak period when the world mined over 170 million carats annually.

It is noteworthy that this decline is not a short-term cyclical phenomenon but a sign of a long-term structural decline for the entire industry.

The World's Largest Diamond Producing Countries Are Changing Positions

For decades, Russia has been the world's largest diamond producer through the Alrosa group, accounting for about 30% of the global rough diamond supply.

However, since 2022: US and EU sanctions on Russian diamonds, restrictions on international trade, and stricter traceability have led to significant changes in the global diamond trade flow.

Meanwhile, Botswana continues to emerge as the world's most important natural diamond mining hub in terms of commercial value due to the high quality of its stones and more transparent policies.

Besides Russia and Botswana, other countries maintaining large production volumes include:

• Canada
• Angola
• South Africa
• Namibia
• Congo

Australia was once one of the world's most important diamond-producing countries thanks to the famous Argyle mine. However, after the mine closed in 2020, the supply of natural pink diamonds has drastically decreased in the global market.

Why is Global Diamond Production Declining?

Major Diamond Mines Are Gradually Depleting

The diamond industry now faces a problem similar to the oil and gas industry: increasing extraction costs, declining easily accessible reserves, and stricter environmental requirements.

Many major mines have reached the end of their life cycle. Finding new diamond mines is increasingly difficult and the investment costs are ever-increasing. According to Bain & Company, for over 20 years, almost no diamond mines capable of replacing old major mines have appeared.

ESG and Pressure for Sustainable Development

The diamond industry is currently under immense pressure from ESG standards: environmental protection, labor rights, supply chain transparency, and traceability.

This leads to a sharp increase in extraction costs, extended licensing times, and shrinking profit margins.

If the mining industry previously prioritized output, major corporations now have to prioritize ESG. This is why many businesses are voluntarily reducing production instead of expanding extraction indiscriminately.

Fragmentation of the Global Diamond Supply Chain

In the past, De Beers controlled almost the entire global rough diamond market. But currently: Alrosa, Rio Tinto, Lucara, Petra Diamonds, and African mining companies all operate more independently, causing the market to lose its centralized regulatory capacity.

A very noteworthy trend in the 2024-2026 period: small diamonds under 1 carat are facing price pressure, but large and high-quality diamonds are recovering strongly. In particular, rare diamonds are being considered new value storage assets.

The reasons stem from: scarcer supply, demand from Asia's ultra-rich, and a shift towards investing in luxury goods.

In other words, natural diamonds are gradually becoming more like collectibles than mass-market jewelry. Asia is becoming the new growth engine for the diamond industry.

If the US and China were once the two largest consumer centers, ASEAN is now emerging very rapidly.

According to Bain's forecast: Southeast Asia's middle class will grow significantly by 2030, and luxury goods demand in ASEAN is among the fastest-growing globally.

Vietnam is particularly noteworthy due to its young population, high personal asset growth rate, and strong increase in luxury consumption trends after Covid. This explains why more and more international diamond brands are starting to pay attention to the Vietnamese market.

Mr. Fabio Cascapera: The Diamond Industry is Undergoing Global Restructuring

In his speech at the Heritage Diamond Conference 2026, Mr. Fabio Cascapera - Chairman of the Singapore Diamond Exchange - made several noteworthy remarks about the future of the diamond industry.

Mr. Fabio believes that the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Middle East instability, and US-Iran tensions are directly impacting: supply, logistics, prices, and the global diamond distribution system.

He emphasized that Russia is one of the world's largest diamond producers, while the US remains the largest consumer market for diamond jewelry.

“Natural and lab-grown diamonds are now two completely different markets.”

According to Mr. Fabio: the technology for identifying lab-grown diamonds is now very accurate, and consumers are beginning to clearly understand the difference in value between natural diamonds and synthetic diamonds.

He stressed: "Consumers today are very aware that synthetic diamonds have no resale value." This is a very important observation as it reflects a diversification trend:
“The Diamond Industry is Unifying and Modernizing”

One of the most significant points in the speech was the unifying spirit of the global diamond industry.

According to Mr. Fabio: major associations, miners, exchanges, and grading organizations are beginning to coordinate more closely to: increase transparency, promote sustainability, and protect the value of natural diamonds.

He called the Luanda Treaty 2025 a prime example of the "new common voice" of the global diamond industry.

In his speech at the Heritage Diamond Conference 2026, Mr. Fabio Cascapera - Chairman of the Singapore Diamond Exchange - made several noteworthy remarks about the future of the diamond industry.

Opportunities in the New Diamond Industry Cycle

In the context of the global diamond industry transitioning to a phase: more transparent, scarcer, and emphasizing greater transparency, brands capable of building trust will have a significant advantage.

In Vietnam, brands are moving in the right direction with this trend: focusing on natural diamonds, international certification, transparent information, long-term value preservation, and in-depth consulting experience.

When consumers are no longer just buying "jewelry" but buying: investment value, rarity, peace of mind, and heritage, brands capable of educating the market like Jemmia will play an increasingly significant role in the high-end segment.

The future of the diamond industry will no longer be a race for quantity. What the global diamond industry is moving towards is no longer: "mining more," but rather mining more sustainably, more transparently, with more value, and more responsibility.

In an increasingly artificial world, it is precisely scarcity and naturalness that may make natural diamonds one of the most valuable emotional assets of the 21st century.